2013-07-04 16:29:00

Egypt takes course toward secular regime but stabilization not guaranteed analyst

Moscow, July 4, Interfax - The ongoing events in Egypt mean that the country has chosen the course toward a secular regime, and these events will weaken the Arab world's pressure on the Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria for a short time, says Alexey Makarkin, the first vice president of the Center of Political Technologies.

"The dislodgement of President Mohammed Mursi and the detention of 300 activists of the Muslim Brotherhood movement mean that the new authorities are taking the course toward a secular regime. It is obvious that the Muslim Brotherhood will not be able to win in new elections, preparations for which will begin soon," Makarkin told Interfax on Thursday.

Simultaneously, the new government will inherit the problems that the dismissed regime failed to resolve, Makarkin said. "The people's discontent was not only because of the deviation from the secular state principles. The Islamists also failed to resolve Egypt's concrete problems, including economic ones. And it is not obvious that a secular regime will be able to do this quickly," he said.

At the same time, "if you try to imagine how the situation can develop in the future, nobody can give any guarantees of stability," Makarkin said. "The Islamists have been removed from power, but they have not been eliminated as a political force. All Egyptian leaders, from Gamal Abdel Nasser to Hosni Mubarak, tried to remove them but failed. The Muslim Brotherhood has been terribly insulted and is likely to go partly underground with support from a significant part of the population," he said.

However, the radical Islamists will be unable to start a civil war, Makarkin said. "The Islamists may resort to terrorist attacks, but they are unable to lead a full-scale civil war against the new authorities. Their and the Egyptian army's resources are absolutely incomparable," he said.

The situation in Egypt gives a chance to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to deal efficient blows to the armed opposition for some time.